Where do the bottom 10 go from here? I’m not talking about the bottom 10 teams in the country, though the list of the bottom 10 teams in the F.B.S. and the 10 coaches on the hottest seats does often overlap: Akron, Memphis, Central Michigan and U.A.B. are on the former list, while Rob Ianello, Larry Porter, Dan Enos and Neil Callaway find a home on the latter. The answer to where the bottom 10 go from here is up, of course, as most really can’t drop any deeper — or can’t afford to drop any lower, at least.
U.C.L.A. remains an intriguing landing spot. Despite Rick Neuheisel’s inability to get the program over the hump, despite Karl Dorrell’s inability to do the same, U.C.L.A. could entice a fairly significant name to take a shot at restoring the luster to the Rose Bowl. Mike Leach is obviously a name that will carry weight with fans, but I don’t think Dorrell’s mediocre tenure should scare the Bruins away from considering a talented assistant — even one without prior head coaching experience.
One rule: U.C.L.A. must avoid the Neuheisel coaching tree. That should be simple enough; there aren’t very many branches left, and the Bruins have cut that tree down at the root — or will, should Neuheisel not last until 2012. But Neuheisel’s tenure, should it conclude in failure, may end up helping U.C.L.A., in a strange way.
Would U.C.L.A. be a safer landing spot for an up-and-coming coach when coming off of six straight years with seven or fewer wins? Think of it like this: perhaps your next superstar with options — I’ll cite Kirby Smart as an example — looks at the Bruins with a kinder eye because of the knowledge that fans and the administration won’t be expecting the world. If you’re looking for a silver lining, that may be it.
There’s no silver lining at Memphis, where Porter has taken a bad scene and turned into a full-blown, drop-dead nightmare. If Tommy West was a bust and Porter a dud, where does the program turn to next? What young assistant is going to enlist at a school that’s been beaten, bruised and left for dead? No one with Porter’s credentials — he was one of Les Miles’s chief lieutenants at L.S.U. — even if Memphis was fooled into thinking Porter’s recruiting acumen translated at all to being a head coach on this level.
Memphis needs to dig for a veteran coach with a proven track record not just of identifying talent but developing it over the span of several seasons. At worst, the Tigers need a proven coordinator; at best, the Tigers need a coach with leadership experience. Who fits that bill?
If the Tigers want coordinator experience, the program would be wise to consider a few coaches in its own backyard. Give Texas’ Manny Diaz a call; the former Mississippi State defensive coordinator would likely hold out for something better, but it’s worth a shot. Try out Alabama’s Jim McElwain, among a few others.
If Memphis wants a head coach? I’ve got a name for the Tigers: Arkansas State’s Hugh Freeze. He has name recognition in the city. He has connections with local high schools. He did a fine job on the N.A.I.A. level and has done a nice job thus far in his first year running the show in Jonesboro. His team beat Memphis a few weeks ago, by the way.
Memphis can aim for the starts if it likes, but the program needs to be realistic. If Memphis is aiming for a current head coach — or someone with past head coach experience — Freeze is probably the best option the program could get. This isn’t U.C.L.A.; U.C.L.A. isn’t U.C.L.A., not anymore, but Memphis isn’t even Memphis anymore, and Memphis wasn’t exactly a football hotbed prior to Porter’s arrival.
But each program’s projected future coaching search gives you a taste of life in and out of the national picture. Not that the Bruins are a power — they’re not. The Bruins are U.S. Steel compared to Memphis’s mom and pop operation, however.
Where the two programs intersect is in the important of each school’s next move. U.C.L.A. can’t miss again for two reasons: one, now is the time to catch up with U.S.C., which looks not just lost as a team under Lane Kiffin but must also deal with N.C.A.A.-mandated limitations; two, the Pac-12’s power shift is turning towards programs that have recently ascended because of praiseworthy coaching moves — Jim Harbaugh and Chip Kelly, especially Harbaugh.
Memphis can’t miss for one simple reason: I shudder to think of where this long-underachieving program would stand if it swings and misses with another hire.
Another thing the two share? Each is confident that things will eventually work out; at the same time, each must carry the small fear that rock bottom still lies ahead.
You can also follow Paul Myerberg and Pre-Snap Read on Twitter.